The assets acquired
CT-388: dual GLP-1/GIP weekly-injection agonist, mechanically comparable to tirzepatide. Phase 2 showed 18.8% weight loss at 24 weeks — a competitive read though over a short window.
CT-996: daily oral GLP-1 agonist, phase 1. 7.3% weight loss at 4 weeks in obese patients.
CT-868: T1 diabetes program with a GLP-1 + glucagon component.
Price and rationale
Roche paid $2.7 billion cash plus up to $400 million in regulatory milestones. The price implies an aggressive multiple for a phase 2 asset but reflects the rush to enter a market Bank of America projects at $130 billion annually by 2030.
Competitive implications
Roche joins the list of pharma with serious GLP-1 assets: Lilly, Novo, Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim (survodutide, phase 3), Astra Zeneca (AMG133 in-licensed), Pfizer (danuglipron, discontinued due to liver toxicity). Sanofi and Merck remain laggards.
What's next
Roche confirmed it will advance CT-388 to phase 3 in 2025-2026 and aims to file with the FDA by 2027-2028. Realistic possibility of capturing 10-15% of the global obesity market by 2030 if the data holds.
Source: Roche press release
